Whitney Tilson and John Heins : Fixes for Bad Timing

If you're able to look beyond near-term trouble, you have an advantage over many professional investors.

Investing too early is one of the more common sins of value investors. Watching as that well-researched idea you loved a few months ago falls 20% to 30% can be painful and nerve-racking. Bruce Berkowitz, of the highly successful Fairholme fund, calls it "premature accumulation."

Getting your timing wrong is inevitable -- especially in today's market, in which stock prices continue to plumb new depths in a wide variety of industries. Value investors like us can be particularly susceptible to bad timing because we often buy on bad news or bet on turnarounds -- both of which have the unfortunate habit of dragging on much longer than expected, often causing share prices to continue to decline.

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Direct Link - Whitney Tilson and John Heins : Fixes for Bad Timing.

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips , April. 2008

• Tilson Sees Buffett Focus on Europe `Dynastic' Companies
  
• Whitney Tilson on Bloomberg TV, 4/21/08
  • Whitney Tilson, managing director and founder of T2 Partners LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Monica Bertran in New York about the outlook for financial stocks, Bank of America's first-quarter earnings report and plan to buy Countrywide Financial Corp., and Tilson's assessment of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. Hedge fund manager T2 Partners oversees $100 million in assets.

Whitney Tilson: Let the herd stampede first before making your move

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

Without doubt, timely and democratic access to financial and market information contributes to smoothly functioning financial markets. But it’s worth asking whether the ubiquity of such information today is a friend or foe of sound investment decision-making. For all but the most active professional traders, the answer is often “no”.

Direct Link - Let the herd stampede first before making your move

Whitney Tilson's Presentation on the Housing Crisis

Here is video link or you can watch directly below. (About 100 minutes)

Whitney Tilson: The worst is yet to come – time to flee to quality

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

Recent announcements on manufacturing activity, household income and employment have made it painfully clear that the US economy is struggling. For investors, however, the relatively arcane debate over whether we are in a recession or not is largely irrelevant. Today’s stock prices discount future expectations, and it is the extent to which reality ends up exceeding or falling short of those expectations that drives future stock performance.

In tackling the more relevant question – “where does the economy go from here?” – I should point out that I don’t usually spend much time on macroeconomic forecasting. It is difficult to get right and generally my time is more productively spent focusing on a bottom-up analysis of individual companies’ prospects. If one takes the long-term view that the US economy is resilient and will continue to grow over time – as I do – it is the company-by-company calls that will determine investing success or failure.

From time to time, however, some macroeconomic trends – especially when they seem to be underappreciated by the market – are too important not to factor into our investing strategy.

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Direct Link - The worst is yet to come – time to flee to quality.

Buffett's Words of Wisdom - 2007 Annual Letter

Warren Buffett's 2007 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders comes out.

Related Links :

• 2007 Annual Letter (PDF)
  
• Whitney Tilson on Buffett's annual letter
• Andrew Kilpatrick, a Warren Buffett biographer, and Robert Miles, author of "The Warren Buffett CEO," discuss the Sage of Omaha.
  
• Buffett's Bets - Mohnish Pabrai
• A take on Warren Buffett's famed investor letter, with Mark Hake, Hake Capital Mgmt.; Mohnish Pabrai, Pabrai Investment Funds; and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips , Feb. 2008

• Whitney Tilson on Fox Biz News, 2-22-08
• Whitney Tilson onTarget, Sears Holdings and Merrill's downgrade of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  
• Bottom Fishing for Retail Stocks
• Opportunities in retail, with Whitney Tilson, T2 Partners & Michael Farr, Farr, Miller & Washington.
  
• Whitney Tilson on 13-F filings, 2-13-08
• The Fast Money traders, along with Whitney Tilson, of T2 Capital Partners, look ahead to 13-F season.
  
• Whitney Tilson on retailers, Sears Holdings, 2-8-08
  

Whitney Tilson on WealthTrack, 2-22-08

What are some of the most expensive mistakes that investors can make in the current market? On hand to dispense advice to WealthTrack viewers will be Barron's Online Editor Randall Forsyth, value investor Whitney Tilson and Consumer Reports Personal Finance Columnist Amanda Walker.

Here is video link and transcript. (Only available for 2 weeks)
Or you can download the video (MP4 Format) here (Right Click and Save as..).

Whitney Tilson: Investors will miss out if they confuse uncertainty with risk

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

Dealing with uncertainty is always a key challenge for investors. But dealing with uncertainty doesn’t mean avoiding it – on the contrary, it is often fuzziness about a company’s future that creates the type of opportunity bargain-hunting investors cherish.
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Direct Link - Investors will miss out if they confuse uncertainty with risk.

Whitney Tilson: Strong stomach? Concentrate that portfolio

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

As in most subjects relating to money management, there’s a wide diversity of opinion on portfolio concentration versus diversification. Few, of course, would argue for the extremes: owning only one or two stocks invites potential disaster (ask those whose entire retirement portfolio consisted of Lucent or Enron stock), while owning hundreds makes it very difficult to outperform the market.

Direct Link - Strong stomach? Concentrate that portfolio.

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips

• Whitney Tilson on Citigroup's earnings release
• Whitney Tilson on Citigroup's earnings release, Fox Biz News, 1/15/08.
• Whitney Tilson on Berkshire, Fairfax & McDonald's
• Whitney Tilson on Berkshire Hathaway, Fairfax & mcdonald's, CNBC Fast Money, 1/16/08. (Funds managed by Whitney Tilson are long Berkshire Hathaway.
  

Whitney Tilson on housing (Fox Biz News)

Whitney Tilson on housing, Fox Biz News, 12/18/07.

Video Link - Whitney Tilson on housing or watch directly below.

Whitney Tilson on Wealthtrack

Two up-and-coming investment stars talk about their unusual routes to money management. Bridgeway Funds founder John Montgomery explains his quant approach and unusual corporate culture and value investor Whitney Tilson of the Tilson Funds discusses following Warren Buffett's style.

Here is video link and transcript. (Only available for 2 weeks)
Or you can download the video (MP4 Format) here (Right Click and Save as..).

Whitney Tilson: Look beyond generalisations

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

To say that in the current environment shares of companies in the financial sector are “oversold” or “already discounting a recession” or “poised to fall much further” is a simplistic view that doesn’t reflect the diversity of businesses, companies and risks present among financial firms.

In times of uncertainty, the less discriminating the market is of such differences, the more opportunity for smart investors to take advantage.

“I’m not Warren Buffett and neither are you,” Lisa Rapuanosaid. “You have to think for yourself, be original, use your particular talents and learn.”

Direct Link - Look beyond generalisations.

Whitney Tilson: Nothing to fear on the wild ride

Whitney Tilson's latest article on FT's Inside Curve column.

• Panic and fear create buying opportunities; euphoria and complacency deliver great opportunities to sell.
• Taking a proverbial deep breath before responding to short-term market moves goes a long way to avoiding panic-induced mistakes.
• Also important are regular disciplines or checklists to follow in making any buy or sell decision.
  

Direct Link - Nothing to fear on the wild ride.

Whitney Tilson on Citigroup

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips :

• Whitney Tilson on Citigroup, Fox Business News, 11/5/07
• Whitney Tilson talks about Citigroup and their CEO replacement, Robert Rubin.

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips

Whitney Tilson's recent video clips :

• Whitney Tilson on Fox Business Network, 11/2/07
• Whitney Tilson on the credit crunch and Berkshire Hathaway.
  
• Whitney Tilson on Buffett and his trip to Asia, 10/29/07
• Whitney Tilson on Warren Buffett and his trip to Asia.
  
• Whitney Tilson on Fox Business Network, 10/25/07
• Whitney Tilson on Fox Business Network, answering "what is value investing?", bearish on housing, how to build a position.
  

Whitney Tilson on FBN - 10/22/07

Whitney Tilson on what investors should do during times of market turmoil, why banks have trouble with SIVs, Fairfax Financial, Target, Sears and Wal-Mart on Fox Business Network, 10/22/07.

Here is video links :

• Part-1 : Tilson on what investors should do during times of market turmoil, why banks have trouble with SIVs.
• Part-2 : Tilson on Fairfax Financial, Target, Sears and Wal-Mart.

CNBC Interview with Whitney Tilson - Finding Buy Opportunities

Whitney Tilson on CNBC with Maria B. 10 minutes of comments on MCD, TGT, the EMC stub, banks' problems with 20/90 bonds, avoiding housing, etc.

Here is video link or you can watch directly below :

Whitney Tilson on FBN - 10/16/07

Whitney Tilson's comments on Berkshire Hathaway & McDonald's, Fed and housing, EMC stub, and Resource America (REXI) on Fox Business Network, 10/16/07.

Here is video links :

• Tilson on Berkshire Hathaway & McDonald's
• Tilson on the Fed and housing
• Tilson on the EMC stub (long EMC, short out VMW)
• Tilson on Resource America (REXI)